A Shock That Travels: Remittances Under Pressure in the Arab Region

Ripple Effects of the 2026 Middle East Crisis on GCC Economies, Migrant Workers, Household Welfare and Gender Equality

This brief undertakes a risk assessment of the transmission mechanism, including its gendered dimensions. It identifies the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, sectors and Arab migrant groups most exposed to the shock; assesses the dependence of selected Arab countries on GCC-origin remittances; reviews emerging high-frequency evidence; and maps the potential channels through which household welfare and women’s economic security could be affected. This analysis does not seek to forecast future remittance flows or labourmarket outcomes and, throughout the brief, references to potential employment, income or remittance effects should therefore be interpreted as scenario-based risk estimates rather than predictions of future outcomes.